Surface temperatures around the world have not increased on average since the late 1990s, causing some sceptics to suggest that climate change is not happening as quickly as experts predict.
But in a set of three new reports, the Met Office claims that global warming
has been disguised in recent years by the oceans, which have absorbed
greater amounts of heat and prevented us from noticing the difference at
surface level.
This process, caused by the natural cycle of the oceans, could delay earlier
predictions of global warming by five to ten years but will not last
forever, researchers explained.
Other factors including a number of volcanic eruptions since 2000 and changes
in the Sun's activity, could also have masked the effect of greenhouse gases
by providing a slight cooling effect, they said.
The Met Office has predicted it could be another five years before surface
temperatures begin to rise again, but said the current "pause"
would not affect long-term global warming forecasts.
Dr Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring at the Met Office, said: "Global
surface temperatures remain high. Twelve of the 14 warmest years on record
have occurred since 2000, the lower troposphere – the atmosphere above the
surface – is continuing to warm in recent years, and combined with the
cooling in the stratosphere this is a distinctive fingerprint of the effects
of greenhouse gases on the climate system."
Scientists have long been aware that climate change would not happen at a fixed rate and could include periods where temperatures remain stable for 10 to 20 years, but admitted they had failed to explain this to the public in the past.
Prof Rowan Sutton, Director of Climate Research at the University of Reading, said: "Within the field we have taken for granted that there will be variations in the rate of warming, it is totally accepted and is no surprise ...[it] would correct to say that wasn't the message that we communicated more widely and that probably is a failing."
Scientists have long been aware that climate change would not happen at a fixed rate and could include periods where temperatures remain stable for 10 to 20 years, but admitted they had failed to explain this to the public in the past.
Prof Rowan Sutton, Director of Climate Research at the University of Reading, said: "Within the field we have taken for granted that there will be variations in the rate of warming, it is totally accepted and is no surprise ...[it] would correct to say that wasn't the message that we communicated more widely and that probably is a failing."